George
Media Services Group
Showing posts with label NAB Show. Show all posts
Showing posts with label NAB Show. Show all posts
Monday, March 23, 2015
NAB Show Coming Soon
The Media Services Group suite will be at the Encore for the 2015 NAB Show (April 11-16). If you are interested in a confidential meeting, please get in touch.
George
Media Services Group
George
Media Services Group
Sunday, April 6, 2014
Let's meet at the NAB Show
The Media Services Group suite is in the Encore tower, # 3806. Please stop by and say hello.
George
Saturday, April 13, 2013
NAB Show 2013 - From a media broker's perspective
This year, I attended the Rain Internet radio conference on Sunday, at least the first half of it (our Media Services Group meeting filled the afternoon). Kurt Hanson does a good job with the conference. In particular, I enjoyed the dashboard discussion. Paul Jacobs was on that panel; you can check out his report HERE. While the dollars are still relatively small, the growth rate is not. I will plan to attend Rain again in the coming years.
My partners and I convened on Sunday afternoon to discuss the state of the broadcasting industry, what is happening in the media brokerage business, and where pricing multiples are for broadcast properties. For radio, broadcast cash flow multiples are mostly in the 6x to 7x range, with "outliers" in the 5s on the low side and as high as 8x for the upper limit. TV deals are bringing higher multiples than radio. Higher retrans fees, a blow-out political year in 2012, and spectrum auction speculation appear to be fueling the TV appetites. Throughout the convention, there was a good deal of discussion about the TV spectrum auction, and the NAB featured a panel on the subject.
We expected robust activity in our suite and we were not disappointed (most of our meetings are set up in advance). The suite was busy all day on Monday and Tuesday and we even had a few meetings on Wednesday morning. History has shown that such activity is a good predictor of trading action in the coming months.
There is no shortage of station buyers and sellers; all we are missing are the lenders. Though slowly but surely, they too are returning. It is worth noting that GE threw a party at the Show this year after being absent for the last three or four years. The broadcast lending that is going on appears to be in the 3x to 4x range.
Several of us attended Erwin Krasnow's (Garvey Schubert Barer) annual breakfast Monday morning at the Las Vegas Country Club. Thanks, as always, to Erwin, John Pelkey and Melodie Virtue for their hospitality. Matthew Berry, Chief of Staff for FCC Commissioner Ajit Pai, made an interesting presentation. Among other things, he addressed Commissioner Pai's interest in saving AM radio. That too received a lot of "buzz" throughout the week, particularly following the Commissioner's panel on the subject.
In addition to GE's party mentioned above, Wiley Rein also threw a nice reception. As always, it was well attended by the broadcasters, brokers and bankers.
No NAB Show is complete without attending the Broadcasters Foundation breakfast on Wednesday morning. It is a great organization doing wonderful work:
"The mission of the Broadcasters Foundation of America is to improve the quality of life and maintain the personal dignity of men and women in the radio and television broadcast profession who find themselves in acute need."
Phil Lombardo and Jim Thompson hosted the event, awarding the Ward L. Quaal Leadership Awards to:
- Skip Finley
- David Kennedy
- Bob Schmidt
- Alan Frank
- Charles Osgood
- Mike McKinnon
The Lowry Mays Excellence in Broadcasting Award went to Stanley S. Hubbard.
That's my story from Las Vegas. See you at the Radio Show this fall in Orlando!
George
Media Services Group
Friday, April 6, 2012
Let's talk in Las Vegas
The NAB Show is upon us. Media Services Group will have a suite at the Encore. Please get in touch to set up a confidential appointment to discuss station valuation, buying, selling, or financing.
I hope to see you at the Show,
I hope to see you at the Show,
George
Tuesday, April 26, 2011
Report from the NAB Show in Las Vegas
Now that a week and a half have passed since returning from the NAB Show in Las Vegas (and I have caught up returning my phone calls and answering email), I would like to share some thoughts on this year’s convention.
We were back at the Encore for the second year (after a long run at the Bellagio). Attendance for the show was reported up over last year; the traffic in our suite would tend to bear that out. All of our guys were busy with meetings on Monday and Tuesday; some stayed over for meetings on Wednesday as well.
The “tone” was noticeably improved over the last couple of years. We all continue to lament the absence of senior debt, but there is are active crowds of both buyers and sellers. And in spite of the lack of bank financing, some deals are actually getting done (also a marked improvement over prior years).
Station operations are generally continuing their upward trend in performance. Most operators had a pretty good year last year and expect even better results in 2011. As you might expect, there was a lot of chatter about the Citadel/Cumulus and the Bonneville/Hubbard deals. Most believe that the valuation of these two deals sets the high water mark for BCF multiples. We agree. Our company opinion is that those deals traded in roughly the 8.0x to 8.5x range (or at least will be there by the closing dates). Buyers are offering 6’s and sellers are asking 8’s for the less prime inventory. The deals which are getting done appear to be in the 7’s.
Tower sales continue to be of interest. The tower trading marketplace is robust with well-financed and aggressive buyers. Tower cash flow multiples are 8x to 10x for broadcast and high teens and up for wireless.
While most of my time was spent in our suite in meetings, I did make it to Erwin Krasnow’s annual FCC Breakfast at the Las Vegas Country Club. It was well attended and a good show, as always.
Next stop, the Radio Show in Chicago in the Fall.
George
Media Services Group
We were back at the Encore for the second year (after a long run at the Bellagio). Attendance for the show was reported up over last year; the traffic in our suite would tend to bear that out. All of our guys were busy with meetings on Monday and Tuesday; some stayed over for meetings on Wednesday as well.
The “tone” was noticeably improved over the last couple of years. We all continue to lament the absence of senior debt, but there is are active crowds of both buyers and sellers. And in spite of the lack of bank financing, some deals are actually getting done (also a marked improvement over prior years).
Station operations are generally continuing their upward trend in performance. Most operators had a pretty good year last year and expect even better results in 2011. As you might expect, there was a lot of chatter about the Citadel/Cumulus and the Bonneville/Hubbard deals. Most believe that the valuation of these two deals sets the high water mark for BCF multiples. We agree. Our company opinion is that those deals traded in roughly the 8.0x to 8.5x range (or at least will be there by the closing dates). Buyers are offering 6’s and sellers are asking 8’s for the less prime inventory. The deals which are getting done appear to be in the 7’s.
Tower sales continue to be of interest. The tower trading marketplace is robust with well-financed and aggressive buyers. Tower cash flow multiples are 8x to 10x for broadcast and high teens and up for wireless.
While most of my time was spent in our suite in meetings, I did make it to Erwin Krasnow’s annual FCC Breakfast at the Las Vegas Country Club. It was well attended and a good show, as always.
Next stop, the Radio Show in Chicago in the Fall.
George
Media Services Group
Monday, March 28, 2011
Setting up appointments for the NAB Show
The NAB Show in Las Vegas is just around the corner. Media Services Group rolls into town on Saturday, April 9, and will hold court through Wednesday morning (April 13).
Our suite will once again be at the Encore. If you are interested in having a confidential discussion about station values and the trading marketplace, please get in touch. Click to email.
George
Media Services Group
Friday, April 16, 2010
Observations from this year's NAB Show
Following a day of recovery time, I would like to share some observations from this year's NAB in Las Vegas. Many of us switched venues this year. Brokers and bankers were torn between the familiar Bellagio and the new (and NAB endorsed) Encore. Most (including Media Services Group) opted for the Encore. It turned out to be a great spot . . . good restaurants, pleasant surroundings, and generally good service. Our suite was in the Tower Suites and it proved to be a comfortable meeting locale. I heard several comments that the "bump factor" (running into colleagues in the lobby, bar, and hallways) was not as good as previously at the Bellagio.
On a side note, the Encore is hosting Garth Brooks in its showroom. Loree and I saw his show Sunday night and it was fabulous. He does over two hours just with an acoustic guitar. No band. No fire, smoke or flashing lights. If you get a chance, see the show.
The official NAB attendance numbers were up over last year and our experience bore that out. Unlike last year when there were few bankers, buyers or sellers in our suite, this year consisted of wall to wall meetings. I think that is a good leading indicator of the health of the station trading business. The difference between this year and last was striking.
The same can be said about attitudes. A year ago, most of us had the feeling of staring into the abyss. Fast forward twelve months and you get the sense of a new optimism about the broadcasting industry (though fear abounds about the economy). There is a strong sense that the "bottom" is in the rear view mirror. I concur. In fact, I think that the New York Times sale of WQXR last year was the bottom. Things have steadily improved since.
As for station pricing, my partners and I went into the convention with the sense that buyers were offering up 6x BCF and sellers were asking 8x (with some deals likely to get done in the sevens). Our meetings with prospective buyers and sellers supported our thesis. I believe that 6x to 8x range to be an accurate assessment of today's trading market.
Inventory is still tight. I know that ours is and conversations with other brokers and buyers suggest that we are not alone. We expect a far greater supply of inventory by the fall Radio Show.
I also found it noteworthy that we had some bankers in our suite (and they were not all there to talk about workouts). Some lenders appear to actually be gearing up to make media loans again. That too is significant.
There was a lot of chatter (and a few conspiracy theories) about the $500 million equity investment with Lew Dickey. As I mentioned before, we view it as a sea-change event for the industry.
As always, regulatory matters were front and center in Las Vegas. One conversation raised an interesting point regarding the FCC's attempted TV spectrum grab. If the current FCC commissioners think that broadcasting is no longer relevant (as seems to be the case), how can they then take the position that multiple ownership rules make any sense? We're either relevant or we're not. They can't have it both ways.
The NAB Show proved that the deal market is back, at least compared to last year. There is much healing still required. And things won't materially improve until the lenders re-enter the marketplace. But finally, we appear to be moving in the right direction.
That's how I saw the convention. What about you?
George
Media Services Group
On a side note, the Encore is hosting Garth Brooks in its showroom. Loree and I saw his show Sunday night and it was fabulous. He does over two hours just with an acoustic guitar. No band. No fire, smoke or flashing lights. If you get a chance, see the show.
The official NAB attendance numbers were up over last year and our experience bore that out. Unlike last year when there were few bankers, buyers or sellers in our suite, this year consisted of wall to wall meetings. I think that is a good leading indicator of the health of the station trading business. The difference between this year and last was striking.
The same can be said about attitudes. A year ago, most of us had the feeling of staring into the abyss. Fast forward twelve months and you get the sense of a new optimism about the broadcasting industry (though fear abounds about the economy). There is a strong sense that the "bottom" is in the rear view mirror. I concur. In fact, I think that the New York Times sale of WQXR last year was the bottom. Things have steadily improved since.
As for station pricing, my partners and I went into the convention with the sense that buyers were offering up 6x BCF and sellers were asking 8x (with some deals likely to get done in the sevens). Our meetings with prospective buyers and sellers supported our thesis. I believe that 6x to 8x range to be an accurate assessment of today's trading market.
Inventory is still tight. I know that ours is and conversations with other brokers and buyers suggest that we are not alone. We expect a far greater supply of inventory by the fall Radio Show.
I also found it noteworthy that we had some bankers in our suite (and they were not all there to talk about workouts). Some lenders appear to actually be gearing up to make media loans again. That too is significant.
There was a lot of chatter (and a few conspiracy theories) about the $500 million equity investment with Lew Dickey. As I mentioned before, we view it as a sea-change event for the industry.
As always, regulatory matters were front and center in Las Vegas. One conversation raised an interesting point regarding the FCC's attempted TV spectrum grab. If the current FCC commissioners think that broadcasting is no longer relevant (as seems to be the case), how can they then take the position that multiple ownership rules make any sense? We're either relevant or we're not. They can't have it both ways.
The NAB Show proved that the deal market is back, at least compared to last year. There is much healing still required. And things won't materially improve until the lenders re-enter the marketplace. But finally, we appear to be moving in the right direction.
That's how I saw the convention. What about you?
George
Media Services Group
Thursday, April 23, 2009
Las Vegas (NAB) in the Rear View Mirror
Following a number of meetings with lenders, investors, and broadcasters during the NAB Show, let me share some thoughts and observations.
While overall attendance was down, the Media Services Group suite was very busy. Despite fewer pre-set appointments than usual, we filled two full days of meetings with broadcast station owners, potential buyers, and members of the financial community. My partners and I now have a much better perspective on marketplace conditions than we did prior to the convention.
At present, the trading market is virtually locked up (with the exception of some small market sellers who are willing to seller finance their deals). We have buyers and we have sellers. But there is no credit to finance the transactions; therefore, there are precious few transactions. The logjam will not break until credit returns to the industry.
With so few transactions, station pricing is a guess at best. We believe that if there was liquidity in the marketplace, stations would change hands in the range of 5x to 8x broadcast cash flow. But this is based on anecdotal evidence; there are really no data points to rely on at present.
Mike Andres of BIA predicted an unprecedented number of broadcast loan defaults this year. I believe that most broadcast loans are either already in default or will be in default by the end of the year (though some loans have been renegotiated with relief extended nine to twelve months).
Media Services Group expects a number of engagements in the coming months assisting borrowers and lenders in the restructuring of many of these problem loans. Look for a lot of debt being converted to equity. There will likely be some liquidations. While this will be a long and painful process, solid broadcast companies should emerge at the end with balance sheets and debt structures favorable to future growth.
We also believe that a number of funds specializing in distressed debt will be negotiating with the banks to buy broadcasters’ paper at deep discounts. It could provide them with a cheap entry into the broadcast space and generate significant returns once the business regains its footing. However, holders of existing equity, beware.
Bottom line: very stormy seas ahead with smooth sailing ahead for those companies able to stay afloat until the storm passes. This will be a much longer and deeper problem than the one many of us suffered in the early 90’s. Now is a great time to assemble your team to help navigate the tempest. It will soon be time for “all hands on deck.”
Those are my thoughts . . . what are yours?
George Reed
Media Services Group
While overall attendance was down, the Media Services Group suite was very busy. Despite fewer pre-set appointments than usual, we filled two full days of meetings with broadcast station owners, potential buyers, and members of the financial community. My partners and I now have a much better perspective on marketplace conditions than we did prior to the convention.
At present, the trading market is virtually locked up (with the exception of some small market sellers who are willing to seller finance their deals). We have buyers and we have sellers. But there is no credit to finance the transactions; therefore, there are precious few transactions. The logjam will not break until credit returns to the industry.
With so few transactions, station pricing is a guess at best. We believe that if there was liquidity in the marketplace, stations would change hands in the range of 5x to 8x broadcast cash flow. But this is based on anecdotal evidence; there are really no data points to rely on at present.
Mike Andres of BIA predicted an unprecedented number of broadcast loan defaults this year. I believe that most broadcast loans are either already in default or will be in default by the end of the year (though some loans have been renegotiated with relief extended nine to twelve months).
Media Services Group expects a number of engagements in the coming months assisting borrowers and lenders in the restructuring of many of these problem loans. Look for a lot of debt being converted to equity. There will likely be some liquidations. While this will be a long and painful process, solid broadcast companies should emerge at the end with balance sheets and debt structures favorable to future growth.
We also believe that a number of funds specializing in distressed debt will be negotiating with the banks to buy broadcasters’ paper at deep discounts. It could provide them with a cheap entry into the broadcast space and generate significant returns once the business regains its footing. However, holders of existing equity, beware.
Bottom line: very stormy seas ahead with smooth sailing ahead for those companies able to stay afloat until the storm passes. This will be a much longer and deeper problem than the one many of us suffered in the early 90’s. Now is a great time to assemble your team to help navigate the tempest. It will soon be time for “all hands on deck.”
Those are my thoughts . . . what are yours?
George Reed
Media Services Group
Monday, April 20, 2009
NAB update
From the NAB . . .
If you're looking for Media Services Group, we're at the Bellagio (suite # 32057). Suite traffic from prospective buyers and sellers is off; probably the lowest traffic in twenty years of NAB's.
On the positive side, great dinner at Ferraro's (West Flamingo) Saturday night.
Attended the Garvey Schubert Barer breakfast this morning. Thanks to Erwin Krasnow for the hospitality. It was well attended. Ivan Braiker spoke about Hip Cricket (texting).
Banks are scarce. Not sure that any of them are doing any new lending. Some job casualties in the media lending ranks. Bad.
Attended the opening reception. David Rehr spoke about Radio 2020 and Radio Heard Here; discussed the digtal TV transition and mobile TV.
Interesting time for the business. Radio is being re-set.
George
Media Services Group
If you're looking for Media Services Group, we're at the Bellagio (suite # 32057). Suite traffic from prospective buyers and sellers is off; probably the lowest traffic in twenty years of NAB's.
On the positive side, great dinner at Ferraro's (West Flamingo) Saturday night.
Attended the Garvey Schubert Barer breakfast this morning. Thanks to Erwin Krasnow for the hospitality. It was well attended. Ivan Braiker spoke about Hip Cricket (texting).
Banks are scarce. Not sure that any of them are doing any new lending. Some job casualties in the media lending ranks. Bad.
Attended the opening reception. David Rehr spoke about Radio 2020 and Radio Heard Here; discussed the digtal TV transition and mobile TV.
Interesting time for the business. Radio is being re-set.
George
Media Services Group
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